2013年底，稀有金属市场已经预见到泛亚有色金属交易所将会在2014年成为这个行业的主要驱动者。然而事实甚至远远超过了他们的预期。

    他们是对的：泛亚有色金属交易所已经毫无疑问的成为了行业的中心。

    在2014年伊始，泛亚不断上涨的铟库存和铋库存引发了这两种金属价格在第一季度的飙升，这也给众多生产商和贸易商带来了希望：稀有金属最低迷的时期已经过去了。

    截止到二月底，一些贸易商表示在铟市场找到一席之地十分困难，因为在供应本来就很紧张的时期，许多国外的生厂商专注于向终端用户提供原料。

    而对于铋市场来说，国内的生产厂商选择抑制销售的方法，寄希望于价格进一步上涨。

    随着铋和铟价格的一路上涨，泛亚交易所在3月份发表声明说将会上市碲、硒和锑，这也引发了一系列的关注和猜测：“泛亚效应”将如何影响这些金属的价格？

    尽管这些金属在泛亚上市以后都没有出现价格反弹的情况，但是一些市场参与者仍然表示泛亚确实对他们的价格起到了支持的作用。

    受投资者需求旺盛带动，5N PLUS的库存因泛亚而受益。

    尽管第二季度末时，铟和铋的价格回升有所放缓，但是铋的价格在接下来的夏季又出现了上升的情况。

    泛亚在西方世界的形象

    不仅泛亚有色金属交易所平台价格在稀有金属市场产生了巨大影响，在这一年中，交易所在西方市场的影响力也开始越来越突出。

    三月底，5N PLUS 成为泛亚交易所最新授权的铋生产商，也是第一个加入泛亚的外资公司。这一消息引发了行业内的轰动。

    紧接着泛亚又出台了更加令人震惊的政策：泛亚正在寻找一个可以让国外的公司在泛亚平台上进行交易的方法，并且所有在中国设有办公室的公司都可以自由加入。

    泛亚有色金属交易所此前申请加入稀有金属贸易协会（MMTA）并且现身伦敦的MMTA会议向西方解释其业务的运作方式，也进一步提升了其在西方的影响力。

    然而泛亚有色金属交易所的申请也引发了市场参与者的激烈争论，一些人因对模式仍不够了解，提出了很多问题，而另一些人认为泛亚交易所已经是国际小金属贸易中必不可少的组成部分，应该被协会所接受。

    泛亚最终没有加入MMTA，因为很多贸易商会员因泛亚允许私人投资者参与稀有金属买卖，改变了以往贸易商的行业规则而表示反对。

    尽管遭遇了这次挫折，但是2014复制了2013年的情况：在泛亚有色金属交易所的交易不断推动稀有金属价格上涨，泛亚有色金属交易所在市场上的地位持续巩固。

    情势转变

    在2014年即将结束的时候，情势发生了转变。铋价格开始快速下滑，就像它们曾经上涨的速度一样。而铟的价格在中国突然的下降，并且影响到国际市场。

    引起这一情况的原因则是泛亚有色金属交易所的声明，声明中称交易所根据官方要求，将要调整交易规则。

    交易规则的调整包括要求投资者实名注册，并采用“T 5”的交易规则（意味着投资者买入或卖出同一商品的时间间隔不得少于5天），这对短期的投机者来说风险有所增加。

    这一消息给铋市场带来了一定的压力，正如一个贸易商所说的贸易商们正争先恐后的寻找突破口。这对稀有金属市场长期的影响尚不明朗。

    但是由于超过3000公吨的铟和超过18000公吨的铋存放在泛亚的第三方仓库中，稀有金属市场的参与者们必将紧密关注泛亚交易所新的动态和发展。

    一些人认为泛亚有色金属交易所的情况将很可能快速恢复正常，而另一些人则认为泛亚规则的改变将会降低投资者投资泛亚的热情，会导致其稀有金属入库量减少。

    尽管年末对于稀有金属市场的展望仍和去年年末一样不甚明朗，市场参与者们不像年中那样确定泛亚是否将会在来年继续保持其主导地位。但2015仍将会是泛亚主导的一年，也会是泛亚重新成为投资者关注焦点的一年。  

英文原文如下：

REVIEW OF 2014: Minor metals see a year dominated by the Fanya exchange

At the end of 2013, the minor metals markets knew that the Fanya exchange was going to be the main driver in 2014. But they could not predict what would happen much beyond that.

And they were right: the Fanya Metal Exchange has certainly remained centre stage. 

As the year kicked off, the ever-rising indium and bismuth stocks on Fanya caused indium and bismuth prices to race up in the first quarter, sparking hopes among producers and traders that the slump in minor metals was over its worst. 

By February, some traders were reporting difficulties finding a position in the indium market, as producers outside China focused on supplying end-users, at a time when supply was already tight. 

And in the bismuth market, producers in China chose to hold back from selling in the hope of further price rises. 

With bismuth and indium prices on their way up, the announcement in March that the exchange would be adding tellurium, selenium and antimony contracts sparked interest and speculation over whether these metals would also fall under the influence of the "Fanya effect". 

While none of these metals has rallied on the back of their listing on Fanya, some market participants maintain that Fanya’s influence has given some support to their prices. 

Even 5N Plus’s stock benefited from the high investor demand on the Fanya exchange. 

Although the indium and bismuth rallies petered out by the second quarter of the year, bismuth prices then took off again over the summer. 

Fanya’s profile in the west

Prices were not the only area in the minor metals markets where the Fanya exchange exerted its influence this year. Over the course of the year, the exchange also started to become more prominent in the western market. 

At the end of March, 5N Plus caused a stir when it became the latest producer qualified to deliver bismuth on the exchange, and the first non-China headquartered company to join Fanya. 

The exchange then surprised the market further by saying that it was looking to find a way to allow companies outside China to trade on the platform, and that all companies with offices in China were free to join. 

Fanya’s profile in the western world grew as it applied for membership of the Minor Metals Trade Assn (MMTA) in April, even appearing at the MMTA’s conference in London to explain to the west exactly how its business works. 

But its application sparked fierce debate among market participants, with some raising questions about how the exchange works, while others argued that it is an integral part of the minor metals market that needs to be accepted. 

Fanya ultimately failed in its bid to join the MMTA, as members voted against allowing companies involved in the sale of minor metals to private investors to join the association, a move that barred its membership. 

Despite this setback, it looked as though 2014 would be a repeat story to 2013: of investor buying on the Fanya exchange relentlessly pushing up minor metals prices and the exchange’s role continuing to grow in the market. 

The situation turns

But then, as the year drew to a close, the situation turned. Bismuth prices started to fall almost as quickly as they had risen, while indium prices plunged in China, and started to wane in the international market. 

The cause was the exchange’s announcement that it had undergone an official investigation, and would be adjusting its trading rules. 

The rule changes included requiring investors to register under their real names and the adoption of a "T 5" trading rule, which meant investors would have to wait at least five days between buying and selling positions, effectively raising the risk levels for short-term speculators. 

Then, on December 8, Fanya made another announcement to say it was suspending its commercial stockpiling for a few days while aninspection of its stocks was conducted. 

The news put particular pressure on the bismuth market, with one trader saying players were "rushing for the door". While, with indium, few were keen to buy the metal. 

What these developments mean for the minor metals markets in the long run is not yet clear. 

But with more than 3,000 tonnes of indium and more than 18,000 tonnes of bismuth stockpiled on Fanya, minor metals players are keeping a close eye on any developments. 

Some maintain that it is likely the situation on the exchange will go back to normal, but others said the rule change will discourage investors from investing on Fanya, either slowing down or halting the stockpiling of minor metals on the exchange. 

While the outlook for minor metals is still as murky as it was last year, this year market players are no longer so certain Fanya will remain the dominant force next year. 2015 could be another year driven by Fanya, but it could also be a year when fundamentals come back into focus.